In the announcement on Sunday, Orban pointed toward his notorious anti-immigration policies as a reason for launching the incentives.
Seven points from Orban’s ‘Hungarian babies’ programmeA lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four childrenA low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child.A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expandedAfter the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family‘s mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent childGrand-parents could be eligible for “GYED” – a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of threeThe Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more childrenWhat’s the fertility situation across the EU?
In order for a population to completely sustain or replace itself without relying on migration, each woman would need to give birth to 2.1 children, which is generally accepted as the rate of “replacement-level fertility.”
A data set produced by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the Vienna Institute of Demography found that the EU could expect its population to decline more than 5% by 2050, should migration statistics be waivered.
Does this pose a problem for Europe?
However, Andrew Cartwright, a research fellow at the centre for policy studies at the Central European University, said lower fertility rates in central and eastern European countries could also be attributed to other factors, such as poverty.
“The general story is low wages leads to lower fertility and higher out-migration, so almost all the countries in [central and eastern Europe] witness significant population decline,” he said in a conversation with Euronews.
What have other countries tried?
Spain has appointed a ‘sex tsar’ to search for solutions to its declining birth rate.¨
When asked specifically about Orban’s proposed financial incentives, Leeson said: “to say that it’s short-sighted is a gross underestimation.”
“It’s a very 19th Century attitude,” he said. “If a government wants to encourage women to have more children, we need to ask what motivates that. I find it hard to believe that it is something women themselves are demanding.”
Migrants entering a country tend to be of working age, meaning they join the labour force and contribute to the country they are residing in, he said.
To take this away, and instead rely on boosting birth rates, you will be left waiting for two decades until that generation can enter the workforce.
This would leave a huge gap in support for both elderly and the younger populations, Leeson said.
However, Cartwright noted that Orban’s incentives might not only be encouraging more pregnancies, but it may also be encouraging the population into employment in Hungary, rather than being tempted by high wages in neighbouring states.
“The thing about [Orban’s] announcement is that they are clearly targeting those who are in work,” he said.
“Unemployment and poverty are concentrated in certain parts of the country; they are also at far higher levels amongst the Roma minority.”
“The policy goal then is not only higher labour participation which on paper they seemed to have achieved, but better, higher paying, longer lasting jobs that make people want to stay in the places they were born.”